,4 天前 - This Kelly Criterion Bet Calculator takes your inputs on odds, bankroll and payouts to deliver your. On this page, you'll find return calculators for individual equities as well as indices, funds, and commodities. Kelly Criterion Calculator is a tool for finding the optimal investment size to maximize profits on repeated investments. This is just common sense! We develop a general framework to apply the Kelly criterion to the stock market data, and consequently, to portfolio optimization. I want to calculate the Kelly bet for an event with more than two possible outcomes. And you have the choice of taking an insurance or not. A no vig fair odds calculator is used to back out "fair" odds from a market. Kelly Criterion Calculator is a tool for finding the optimal investment size to maximize profits on repeated investments. We’ve developed a Kelly Criterion formula Excel spreadsheet that you can download here. It can also be a. This r ≡ exp E log ( R) is sometimes called expected geometric growth rate. ‘MY_ODDS’ is what you consider to be the fair odds. We’ll stick with a simple market that has just two outcomes. For my betting, I use an excel calculator. The formula for expected value = (fair win probability) x (profit if win) - (fair loss probability) x (stake). You lose $100 if the dice shows up as a 4, 5 or 6. ,Open a new Excel spreadsheet and create the following headers: Betting Bankroll, Kelly Staking Fraction, 1 (outcome 1), 2 (outcome 2), Odds 1, Odds 2,. 71% of your capital, or $57. This calculator supports events with up to ten possible selections. 5% and 1/8 1. The Kelly criterion is a money management system that’s used by many professional traders and hedge funds. e. Search for jobs related to Kelly criterion lay calculator or hire on the world's largest freelancing marketplace with 22m+ jobs. No sane trader in options uses the Kelly criterion literally. The trade calculator tells you how much your trade size should be based on your risk profile you specified to the left in the "Percent Bankroll used". 80 to 1. We develop a general framework to apply the Kelly criterion to the stock market data, and consequently, to portfolio optimization. 15 and laying the same outcome at 2. 077 / 0. In this example, you would see that the optimal size stake for each single bet would be $186. With this we can calculate the optimal Kelly leverage via f = μ / σ 2 = 0. To show the steps of the calculation and to ensure that it's doing what we're expecting it to, we've. Formula Kelly. I've been working on the formula to bet kelly criterion when multiple games are playing at the same time. Which I assume you can not. Search for jobs related to Kelly criterion lay calculator or hire on the world's largest freelancing marketplace with 22m+ jobs. U = (30% of $10000) / $200 = 15. See moreKelly Criterion Excel Spreadsheet. Applying the formula to forex trading looks like this: Position size % = Winning trade % - ( (1- Winning trade %) / Risk-reward ratio )Como usar. Handicappers can choose from a huge range of tools. 091 500:1 odds 0. L. It was originally designed for that purpose and became quite popular among gamblers in the middle of the last century. Lay betting, commissions, refunds and fractional Kelly betting are. Job Overview: We are in need of an Excel spreadsheet developer who can create a customized spreadsheet utilizing the Kelly criterion calculation. KELLY CRITERION | Ed Thorp | Optimal Position Sizing For Stock TradingThe Kelly Criterion calculation was created by Ed Thorp and made specifically to beat t. My RoR is thus 0. 35 = 0. 1 Main Idea In the gambling game we just described, the gambling probability and payo per bet do not change, and thus, from an intuitive stand-. Kelly Criterion | Sports Information. Kelly is a very aggressive investment. To calculate the optimal bet size use Kelly's criterion . Applying the Kelly criterion without. The Kelly Criterion is a popular staking method which suggests that your stake should be proportional to the perceived edge. Kelly Criterion. I want to use the Kelly criterion to figure out the optimal % of wealth to bet on this call option. The Kelly formula can help you to calculate the optimum number of lots, which it makes sense to put at risk in every specific trade. function is to create the right balance between risk and reward. In most gambling scenarios, and some investing scenarios under some simplifying assumptions, the Kelly strategy will do better than any essentially different strategy in the long run. 5. 1 chance of winning -- kelly & net odds around 0. The first bettor (blue line) bets exactly $5. Works quite well in many ways, but has serious limitations when used for trading. If there is a fixed amount of bets the Kelly criterion will be suboptimal, but as the number of bets grows the optimal strategy will asymptotically reach the Kelly criterion. This is where the Kelly Criterion enters the picture. Integrated to show the best value based on your sportsbook selection. The specifics involve too much algebra for me to elucidate here. If you do not wish to place certain parlays. The Kelly criterion or formula is Edge/Odds = f. Estimate Value. The Kelly bet size is found by maximizing the expected geometric growth rate. 5%. I am able to generate the same Ralph Vince Optimal f by maximizing the TWR function in Excel which is 3. The Kelly Calculator (or Kelly Criterion Calculator) can help a sports bettor decide how much of their bankroll to risk on a wager. You enter your estimated win probability in cell D1. However, it’s important to remember that the Kelly criterion is not a one-size-fits-all. When my web page is up the spreadsheet will be available. 1. Kelly criterion = 5% For the second bet of kelly = (4. 40. If you can find an exploitable, repeatable edge, Kelly's system tells the maximum you should bet based upon. 3% before) and Utah should win the game 37. In detail the algorithm will find optimal bet sizes for a set of concurrent singles and/or ’round robin’ combinations of parlays or teasers. The formula is D3 is the two conversion formulas combined into a conditional statement: The result is the proportion of your bankroll recommended by the Kelly Criterion. 00 for a $5. Investing is intimately connected to net worth, as it can earn you income passively while you work your own day job. It's free to sign up and bid on jobs. W = The win percentage of the trading strategyIncome Calculators. The Kelly formula is: Kelly % = P - [ (1 - P) : R] As an example, let's say one has won 40 out of 100 trades and the total win is €6,000 while the total losses are €2,000. The only way to get a mathematical edge is to practice. 7. The famous coin-flipping exercise that many investors use to measure the performance of chance. How To Choose The kelly criterion calculator excel Best suited Bookmaker Presently online casinos kick off several attractive plans to construct up their buyer foundation. At +100 52. The Golden Ratio being a number in the sequence divided by the previous number. Kelly criterion calculator excel - The spreadsheet will now tell you how much to bet on any given market. In probability theory, the Kelly criterion (or Kelly strategy or Kelly bet) is a formula for sizing a bet. In this formula, P is the payoff, W is the probability of winning, and L is the probability of losing. 0) than a 5% edge at 1/3 (1. 33). Put simply, it is essentially a way to manage your. ) Kelly criterion will maximize your (log) account if the maximum possible loss is exactly 100%. 6 – 1) = -0. Put simply, the Kelly Criterion or Formula is a way to calculate how much of their assets a Forex trader should risk on any given trade in order to maximize the return. Excel and briefly R are used to show how the Kelly criterion is. 40. Step - 2: Calculate the probability of each outcome. Kelly Criterion Calculator Calculates a recommended stake based on the bookmaker odds and your estimated probability that the selection will win. A Kelly Criterion sports betting calculator can be used to manage your sports betting bankroll and determine optimal bet sizing. Most only know a simplified version. We achieve this by choosing the optimal fraction of our wealth to bet: f. How to Calculate Moneyline Odds From Probability. The Kelly criterion is an excellent tool for assessing the qualitative shape of risk versus reward and understanding the boundaries of rational bets. Kelly Criterion can be used in either discrete finance or continuous finance applications. Popularised by Ed Thorpe, the formula which is named after its creator, John Kelly, is used by gamblers to determine the optimal bet based on given odds. The closer to 1 you get, the better. Even so, many wonder how an equation originally developed. The Kelly bet size is found by maximizing the expected value of the logarithm of wealth, which is equivalent to maximizing the expected. 01. The formula was developed by Kelly while working at the AT&T Bell. 1:20. 50 10% chance of losing it all Using the Kelly Formula calculator, Pabrai stated I should bet $8,940 or 89. By using the Kelly criterion formula, you can make informed decisions about the optimal size of your bets or investments to maximize long-term growth. This allows the sportsbook to take an expected profit on each event, which is known as vigorish, or vig. O. Thus, the Kelly Criterion suggests that the investor should bet 30% of their bankroll on Player 2. Minnis. With sports betting, however, you may feel the probability of an outcome is 50%, but you do not know that with certainty. In the stock market, money is invested in securities that have high expected return [3]. 9]/2 = 0,003888889. The investor would calculate the efficient frontier as above, but when calculating the median return could use a simulation-based set of returns at the horizon. I start trading a mean reversion strategy with a 70% win rate, and $200 risked per trade. 3. Enter the number of times you’ll place the sequence of wagers. The Kelly Criterion can be used to determine the maximum size of a bet. Mathematically, if you want to raise your capital to a number which is approaching to infinity, Kelly Criterion can bring you there in the shortest time. This tool can be used to compare markets and odds, as well as find the implied win percentages for a given team. How To Make Your Own Kelly Calculator In Excel. Kelly Criterion Calculator - Know Your Stakes Quickly - Kelly Criterion determines how much of a stake you should risk on a favorable bet, is a popular staking method which suggests that your stake should be proportional to the perceived edge. Excel Staking Plan Calculator Doubles as a betting tracker: Live Scores View live scores and recent results: Online Calculators. Under few conditions, using Monte Carlo simulations with different scenarios we prove that the Kelly criterion beats any other approach in many aspects. xlsx","contentType":"file. The Kelly Criterion Talk to most successful gamblers and one of the fundamental factors which they believe separates them from losing punters is money management. Object moved to here. b is your potential winnings, in decimal odds b is simply the odds minus one. The formula is (Decimal odds of the wager * win probability – loss probability) / decimal odds of the wager. - Calculate the maximum amount that you should invest based on the Kelly Criterion. It was developed by J. Therefore, your probability is . This means if the Kelly Criterion advises a bet at 10% of your bankroll, if you’re using 1/2 Kelly it would be 5%, 1/4 2. The calculator has 3 modes which you can use to do this. Kelly Criterion maximizes the wealth in the long-run. SBR provides a full range of free sports betting calculators to help you find great value, manage your bankroll and generate an overall profit. The Kelly formula is : Kelly % = W – (1-W)/R where: Kelly % = percentage of capital to be put into a single trade. 71% of your capital, or $57. However, in real life this is hardly ever the case that a. The Kelly bet size is found by maximizing the expected value of the logarithm of wealth, which is equivalent to maximizing the expected. portfolio strategy is using the Kelly criterion to calculate how much you are willing to invest in an asset. Kelly Criterion For Stock Trading Size. Reasons to use Kelly Criterion as a bankroll management strategy. k. These numbers can often be really aggressive. Insert the number of events or exclusive outcomes. Over the long run, even with a series of failures, you will save some of the money. 4 The Kelly Criterion 4. There are two basic components to the Kelly Criterion. Search for jobs related to Kelly criterion calculator excel or hire on the world's largest freelancing marketplace with 23m+ jobs. However, it’s important to remember that the Kelly criterion is not a one-size-fits-all. 35 * 0. Example: if the values of cells A1 and A2 both equal -102 ExchUS2Holds (A1. Kelly criterion excel - It is based on the formula k% = bpq/b, with p and q equaling the probabilities of winning and losing, respectively. The Kelly Formula is: Kelly % = W – (1-W)/R where: * Kelly % = percentage of capital to be put into a single trade. . So let’s imagine you could play a game where you stake $100 on a dice roll. 100:1 odds 0. Step - 3: For each possible outcome, calculate the ending bankroll for that outcome (starting bankroll plus all wins minus all losses). Income is our most popular topic – people love to compare salaries and see the top 1% in the country by various breakdowns. We also show that. The Kelly criterion is a well-known strategy for sizing bets to maximize long-run expected log wealth. L. It is possible. By applying the Kelly criterion, you are not risking the entire pot size, but only a small fraction of it. It is one of the few betting strategies. function is to create the right balance between risk and reward. The basic concept of Real Kelly is discussed here The Real Kelly. The second is the total win loss ratio, which is made up of the total number of winning trades divided by the total number of losing trades. Never Go Full Kelly. Kelly criterion can be applied to the stock market. That means the Kelly criterion model is suggesting a wager of 5. Kelly Jr in 1956 that determines the optimal risk per trade for a trading strategy or betting system with a positive edge. L. Determine the Kelly multiplier you want to use. Part 3 is the challenging part. You must scale the Kelly output so that the amount you bet is equal to the potential loss. The Kelly Criteria is an interesting thing to play with. The Kelly bet size is found by maximizing the expected value of the. Among these seem to be Warren Self serve buffet and start Benjamin Once-a-year. 1 Main Idea In the gambling game we just described, the gambling probability and payo per bet do not change, and thus, from an intuitive stand-. The Kelly Criterion is to bet a predetermined fraction of assets, and it can seem counterintuitive. Calculate the relationship between risk and return R. The Kelly Formula is: Kelly % = W – (1-W)/R where: * Kelly % = percentage of capital to be put into a single trade. Three strategies are calculated. These calculators let you explore the United States income distribution, or size up job offers and area demographics in different states and cities. The excel template can be downloaded here real_kelly-mutually_exclusive_outcomes-. Content. a. We’ve developed a Kelly Criterion formula Excel spreadsheet that you can download here. W = Historical winning percentage of a trading system. Using the Kelly criterion, you calculate the optimal fraction of your wealth to bet on each outcome as follows: Arsenal: f A = [0. The real combined probabilities are equal to 100%, however -110 odds imply a probability of 52. In addition to standard casino games, I have. Make sure to open both GlobalMinimize and the Real Kelly worksheet. 4 The Kelly Criterion 4. This guide explains how the Kelly Criterion works and why it’s so good for sports betting. And finally, you'll encounter definitions, commentary, and answers. The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula that helps bettors calculate the optimal amount of money to bet on a given event. Attached Image (click to enlarge) With the formula: N: Total trades number. Most only know a simplified version. It is widely applied to sports betting and casino gambling. QuantitativeFinance. Kelly Criterion. (1923 – 1965) Developed the Kelly Criterion, a formula to proportion bets based on a disparity between given odds and true odds. Kelly Jr in 1956 that determines the optimal risk per trade for a trading strategy or betting system with a positive edge. Learn the best strategy and how to get up to a $1,000 new member bonus. When my web page is up the spreadsheet will be available. The probability of winning, and the probability of losing. Enter your Email below to Download Free Historical Data for Nikkei 225 and Economic Data for 120,000+ Macroeconomic Indicators and Market Data covering Stocks, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies & Financial Indices of 150 countries in Excel or via. , This Kelly Criterion Bet Calculator takes your inputs on odds, bankroll and payouts to deliver your Kelly Criterion optimized bet size. The most used example is, flipping a coin where every time you call it correctly, you will get 2 to 1. * R = Historical Average Win/Loss ratio. Putting these values into the Kelly formula gives a Kelly percentage of 20%. Only adjust the cells that are green. In addition to our automated calculator above, you can also download our excel version below. 50%. Therefore, your probability is . 5% and Ralph Vince Optimal f = 0. Usually 1/4, 1/6, or 1/8 until you are in the range where you are betting . 9%. The Kalman Filter is used to. 🔥激抵！只需 $50 一堂【DSE MATHS 精讀班系列】CORE數學👉🏻. data-science machine-learning portfolio-optimization bayesian-statistics kelly-criterion Updated Jul 6,. 33% * £1000 = £83. Kelly system betting provides an objective answer on how to make your bankroll grow as fast as possible. We advise you to set it at 0. 00 profit (50% return). Lucro esperado no ganho : Insira a. To do so, create a Dabble account and download the App. Win % Loss % Win $ Loss $ R Kelly % rading performance, the Kelly Criterion tells you the position sizes you should be taking on yo ly Criterion are as follows ning probability factor / the probability a trade will be a winning trade ng Probability Factor / the probability that a trade will be losing / Loss Ratio = (30 winning trades/60 Total Trades) = 0. 75] ÷ 4 = 0. It is. Many well known investors use it, including Warren Buffett and Bill Gross. Kelly % = W-[(1-W)/R] Where: W = Winning. Thus the Kelly leverage says that for a 100,000 USD portfolio we should borrow an additional 401,000 USD to have a total portfolio value of 501,000 USD. The Kelly Criterion requires there are no other rules other than the Kelly Criterion. Any time your confidence increases or the moneyline odds of your bet increase, the amount suggested by the model will also increase. Set all stakes to 0. These two factors are then input into the Kelly Criterion equation. The algorithm will work for markets like ‘Liverpool To Win The EPL’, but will not work for markets like ‘Liverpool Top-4’. 25; q = 0. The problem with this is that KC completely upends this. Staking Plan Calculator and Betting Tracker v1. Home. ) Your starting bankroll is however much you want to spend on betting. b = 5. As a professional punter, you should always look for a mathematical edge rather than rely solely on impulses. I was thinking of creating a spreadsheet to help me at the track but why do that if someone already has this. The most popular methodology for determining the optimal wager size is the Kelly Criterion. 2. Pro members have access to our expert models. The Kelly criterion calculates the portion of your funds to place on a wager. E. is only apply kelly criterion excel spreadsheet monkey, and recognizes the sizes. Unlike our standard Excel betting tracker, this worksheet calculates recommended stakes using four different staking plans: level stakes, percentage stakes, square root stakes and the Kelly criterion. The Kelly criterion seeks to maximise the exponential rate of growth per game, hence we seek to maximise the log of (W n /W 0) 1/n. I’ve input the Kelly Formula into Excel, and created a spreadsheet with adjustments. . 4%. [Kelly Criterion] is a formula for bet. 4. But the formula works only for binary bets where the downside. Graph functions, plot points, visualize algebraic equations, add sliders, animate graphs, and more. In Section 2, we review the necessary terminology and foundations of sports gambling. This is precisely what Kelly-promoters choose to ignore. For reference, the formula and derivation can be found on the wiki. 1 chance of winning - kelly around 0. Kelly himself was an interesting character: a chain smoking Texan who used to be a fighter pilot in the Navy during World War 2, he was also brilliant. Chapter 4 concludes and sums up what we find in our simulations. Kelly % = W-[(1-W)/R] Where: W = Winning. The Kelly Criterion formula allows bettors to maximize profits from a particular bankroll, based on the value the bet holds. If only one of them is in your favor, it must more than offset the other, i. The Real Kelly). (For example, if you have a 40% win rate, then enter the number "40", not 0. It takes into account the probability of winning, the odds offered by the bookmaker, and the size of your bankroll. The first of these is the probability of a positive outcome, or a winning trade. 20-1)*100 = 0. 1. Chapter 4 concludes and sums up what we find in our simulations. Odds reflect the market’s expectation for how much a person would win if they were successful, and f. Kelly Criterion Formula With Explanation f = fraction of wealth wagered or % of making the highest profit on investment or. According to the formula, you would not make a bet if f 0. can easily calculate that G0(f) = p 1 + f. using excel and Brownian motion. Kelly Criterion | Kelly Formula | Kelly Criterion Calculator | Macroeconomic Indicators - Financial Data - Market Data. The Kelly Calculator provides the risk and reward calculation that can be applied to sports betting. Our accumulator calculator quickly calculates the total odds for your accumulator. 33). 77% hold. This means you. 25%. Unsurprisingly, the volatility or variance in the evolution of the bankroll is greatest for full-Kelly and least for eighth-Kelly. Similar to roulette with no green and no vig, when you play 60 spins and you win 42 out of 60 you can leave the table because you are above the expectKelly Criterion Calculator. When it grasps the winning chances, the probability of ruin is very low. This online betting arbitrage calculator determines various arbitrage strategies when an arbitrage opportunity exists. The casino is willing to pay 2 to 1 on any bet you make. 50%. 60 – 0. We're using a customised version of the Gruss Ratings tutorial template to implement our staking strategy, so it can not only make betting decisions based on our ratings, but also calculate the stakes based on the Kelly Criterion staking strategy. The below formula is for multiple games at the same time. 凱利公式、凱利方程、凱利判據、凱利策略（英語： Kelly criterion 、 Kelly strategy 、 Kelly bet ），是一種根据赌博赢或输的概率，计算出每次下注的资金占所有赌本的最佳比例的公式 ，由約翰·拉里·凱利於1956年在《 貝爾系統技術期刊 （ 英语 ： Bell. Usually, the bigger your edge on the odds the more you should bet but Kelly also takes into account the real chance of that bet winning and Kelly would advise a smaller bet for a 5% edge at even money (2. Before we get to that, let’s calculate the expected payout of such a game. Code IssuesThe Kelly Criterion is a strategy for determining theal bet size in relation to your bankroll and perceived edge. The Kelly Criterion is the brilliant summation of a betting strategy first discovered by Information Theorist John Kelly. resource for various forms of investing too, as its primary. This gives us a Sharpe Ratio of S = 0. forms of gambling, including sports betting. What is value, how to find it and calculation examples. Big-time investors such as Warren Buffett and Bill Gross have recently revealed that they use the Kelly Criterion in their investment process. , and is analogous to the one in Fortune’s Formula: Kelly % = edge/odds. . There are so many reasons not to risk this much and to risk LESS than this amount. W = Historical winning percentage of a trading. In its most basic form, the Kelly strat-egy states that one should invest a fraction equal to the ratio of the expected return to the winning return [1]. We offer a free odds converter, kelly criterion calculator, bet simulator, odds comparison and line history for obscure. The true probability may lie between 40% and 60%, or even 20% and 80%. What is Kelly's Formula. The calculator has 3 modes which you can use to do this. Enter the odds for each bet option and the Kelly calculator will tell you the implied win probability, or the edge. 4. The formula is as follows: Kelly Formula . The Kelly Criterion A closer look at how estimation errors affect portfolio performance. there must be a positive expected return. Now that you have W and R, you are ready to calculate Kelly percentage number: Kelly percentage number = 0. So, for a bet with a 70% chance to win the optimal wager size is 40% of available funds. The Kelly Criterion, in theory, attempts to maximize the growth of your bankroll and this can be applied to any game no matter how much variance said game has. W = Historical winning percentage of a trading system. Sportsbettingcalcs is a collection of software to assist with sports betting. Kelly, who was a member of a research center at AT&T’s Bells Lab, New Jersey in 1956. According to Kelly formula, optimal size of your stake would be: Stake = ( (2. In probability theory, the Kelly criterion (or Kelly strategy or Kelly bet) is a formula for sizing a bet. The Kelly criterion is a formula for sizing a bet or investment, aiming to maximize the expected geometric growth rate of wealth. Here, we determine our ideal bet size (f) by dividing our edge by the game’s variance. Calculates Kelly stakes for bets on up to either 15 simultaneous betting events or 15 mutually exclusive outcomes of a single event. The spreadsheet compares your betting performance to the hypothetical results had you strictly followed the four staking plans. 03 takes that 95% 95 % probability of $250 $ 250 and the other 5% 5 % spread across lower possible outcomes so it is not a surprise that is slightly smaller than the cap. Kelly. The Kelly Criterion is a formula used to determine the optimal size of your bets based on your edge and bankroll. Kelly Criterion is a formula for making an individual bet in proportion with your bankroll and your expected winning percentage. A Kelly portfolio maximizes the expected return of any given combination of assets in the long run, by maximizing the geometric growth rate of the wealth, which can be expressed by: g_{infty}(f^*) = frac{(mu - r)^2}{2sigma^2} + rThe no-vig calculator essentially backs out the “fair” odds by backing out the 3. 1% (vs 64. Kelly Criterion. Kelly criterion staking Gruss Betting Assistant Gruss Betting Assistant Overview Setup basic market view and one click betting Ratings auto Market fav auto Simultaneous markets Kelly criterion staking Cymatic Trader Cymatic. One was the 'square root' plan whereby a base bet is established, say $20, and each bet you place is $20 plus the. Mode 2: You know the sharp bookmaker odds and soft bookmaker odds. B = the Decimal odds -1 P = the probability of success Q = the probability of failure (i. Since there is not a nite number of outcomes of a bet on a security, we must use continuous probability distributions. The Kelly Criterion is a relatively simple math equation to determine the percentage of your bankroll you should bet on any given circumstance, assuming you have an advantage. 00. e. Expected value and Kelly criterion calculations done automatically to help you make the best decision. In another example, you may have a perceived edge of 55% (0. 25%. Works quite well in many ways, but has serious limitations when used for trading. You have to remember that the basic Kelly Criterion formula is meant to optimize bets for black-and. Tag your bets with various keywords and then filter them later to see how they do. While it does not assign value to risk, simple. The Kelly Criterion is to bet a predetermined fraction of assets, and it can seem counterintuitive. 03 $ 242. Kelly Criterion’s Relation to League Type. Excel’s solver has a limit of 250 variable cells. The Kelly Criterion is a purely mathematical system, and should be able to be tested to see if it is profitable in the long run. From this calculation, if you were to bet on the Celtics to beat the Lakers, the Kelly Criterion suggests you should only bet 4% of your bankroll or capital. A Kelly Criterion sports betting calculator can be used to manage your sports betting bankroll and determine optimal bet sizing. The method is based on a mathematical formula designed to enhance expected returns while reducing the risk involved. What is the Kelly Multiplier? The Kelly Multiplier is an adjustment to the Kelly Criterion that allows a user to make the formula more conservative in it's calculation. . It is a formula that maximizes your profits and guides your better management. 2 – Kelly’s Criterion.